2010 Greenwich, CT Real Estate Market

I'm sure that most of you are more concerned with what is going to happen in 2011 than what happened in 2010, though in order to properly do my job I need to give you a little history briefing.  Don't worry; I'll also talk about what I see going forward.Looking back at 2010, it would be easy for me to tell you that we had a great year because 44% more sales took place (478) vs. 2009 (332), but that doesn't tell the whole picture.  This 44% increase over 2009 is following a decrease of 20% from 2008 after a 37% decrease from 2007.  What I am trying to say is that while we did have a great 2010, we need to put things in perspective before we get too excited.2007, 2008 and 2009 were very strange years that should have large asterisks over them, when looked at in reports.  These years need to be taken with a grain of salt when included in reporting.  It is my opinion that we should go back to the early 2000s to get a more regular growth baseline.  During these periods Greenwich was closing 600 to 700 single-family homes per year, meaning we still have some sales growth to achieve.The number that I want to focus on (once again) is inventory.  As you can see we ended 2010 with 673 single-family homes on the market vs. 2009's 716.  In addition, many of these homes have been on the market for ages because they are not very well priced.  I have read many national real estate reports stating that there is a nearly 7-year inventory supply in the national market right now.  This would signal that the market might have further to fall. I'm not going to state that we might not have another downtick, though I do believe we are within close range of the floor, especially in Greenwich.The main problem I have with the national inventory numbers, commonly used by papers to show that the sky is falling, is that these numbers include cities like Las Vegas, Detroit and Miami.  These cities are outliers and should not always be included in general reporting.  What happened in Detroit and is happening in Vegas should not have much of an impact on Connecticut real estate.  Yes, we have many of the same problems as Miami, but to a much smaller degree. In Greenwich we don't have a 1-year supply of inventory, regardless a 7-year supply.  In addition when you subtract the homes that are miss-priced and won't sell until the owners really want them to, the inventory number is even lower.In the coming weeks we should see an overall uptick in transactions in Greenwich.  There are many sellers out there getting ready to list their homes for the spring market, which will entice buyers to crawl out of their holes.  In addition, interest rates have shown that they have the ability to climb, which should help motivate buyers off the fence.  Some of my prediction is also based upon the general cyclical nature of real estate.  Lifelong real estate agents often look forward to the post Super Bowl (poor Giants) market, when buyers come outside after turning their TV off.On my new website www.GreenwichCT.com I will continue to talk about transactions and new listings that interest me.  I don't have the time to talk about everything that occurs in Greenwich, though if you have any questions/comments concerning specific homes or anything else related to Greenwich Real Estate feel free to speak up.  Feel free to email me at scott@elwell.com, post your questions on my website, or chat on my Facebook page.  Please feel free to speak up!Wishing everyone a spectacular 2011,ScottGreenwichCT.com Scott P. ElwellAl Filippone Associates @ William Raveis45 Field Point Road, Greenwich, CT 06830Cell:  203.940.0444scott@elwell.comWant to search Greenwich, CT?     Go to elwellsc.grw.mlxchange.comWant to search Fairfield County?   Go to scottelwell.listingbook.com