Greenwich, CT Real Estate Market - Jan 2011

Welcome to 2011 everyone. We have made it and now have a month under our belt.  I hope everyone out there has been able to stay warm though this crazy winter.  I'm going to do something that I thought I would never do and agree that the weather has had an impact on the real estate market here in Greenwich.  A couple years ago I would have told you that was crazy and a market will outshine any wild weather, but under these wild circumstances I am changing my opinion.  The 4 feet of snow and ice sitting outside of many houses hasn't been very conducive to getting sellers to list or buyers to come out and play.  Although the numbers state that we had a fairly slow January, with only 29 sales and 69 listings, I read these numbers as strong considering the weather.  It is my belief that this is going to pick up dramatically in the coming two months.I have started to see more buyers and even elusive developers coming out to kick tires.  I see this as a result of warmer weather, stronger economy and the result of an uptick in mortgage rates.  Agents have been worried for years that the interest rates will start coming up, but I say bring it on.  An uptick in rates should help motivate buyers off the fence and should also help bring back a more traditional real estate market.As you read through some of the data that I have attached to this email please take into account that this is just data and does not give the full picture - that's, hopefully, my job. You see the "Months of Supply" number calculated at 13.9, well that's a simple calculation based upon the rate of houses going in and coming out.  What it doesn't say is that the current inventory includes many houses that are not listed at realistic numbers.  These outliers, as I like to call them, shouldn't be included in the regular inventory as they are not going to trade until either the sellers drop the price or someone just has to have the home and over pays.  In addition, when you look at the three-year Greenwich Real Estate Snapshot please don't add to much credence to the 2009 numbers. Yes, technically, the average sales price in Jan 2009 was almost $4m, but there were only 5 trades and a couple of them were big. That doesn't mean that the market was really eating up $4m houses.The reason that I bring this to everyone's attention is that right now, more than ever, people are stretching the truth on what's going on.  It is fairly easy to say the economy is great or horrible by just referencing one or two data points.  In order to get the full picture you need to look past some of the data points that people are selling you on.  I do believe that we are standing at the base of an upward swinging residential market, but I don't know how steep the climb is going to be.  January was a fairly average month and I don't think the data defends the level of interest I have been seeing.  I can think of several houses that might have traded, or at least would have been listed, a little earlier had Mother Nature not wanted to torture us.  This, I see as a good sign.  If you are interested in buying, I'd start searching asap and if you are interested in selling I really believe you should get your house listed sooner than later. Come mid-March when everyone has kids out for spring vacation the spring market will be in full force and there will be lots of competition.Obviously if you are not working with a realtor, I'd be more than happy to help!Sincerely,ScottGreenwichCT.comScott P. ElwellAl Filippone Associates @ William Raveis45 Field Point Road, Greenwich, CT 06830Cell:  203.940.0444scott@elwell.comWant to search Greenwich, CT?     Go to elwellsc.grw.mlxchange.comWant to search Fairfield County?   Go to scottelwell.listingbook.com